Grey forecasting of construction demand in Hong Kong over the next ten years

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Journal Article

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Tan, Y., Langston, C., Wu, M., & Ochoa, J.J. (2015). Grey forecasting of construction demand in Hong Kong over the next ten years. The International Journal of Construction Management, 15(3), 219-228.

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Copyright © 2015 Taylor & Francis

2015 HERDC submission




The Hong Kong construction industry since 1997 has experienced a difficult time in regard to construction output until recently. The future of the local construction industry remains uncertain. Forecasting of future development would be attractive to parties in the industry. Based on past data of the local construction industry, a grey forecasting model is developed to predict the annual growth of construction demand for Hong Kong over the next ten years. With the implementation of ten large infrastructure projects and further collaboration with the Pearl River Delta region, there will be many potential opportunities for the local industry, especially in the transportation sector. The data and the forecast are useful reference for clients, contractors and other industry participants to formulate their short-term and long-term strategic planning.

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