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The Asia pivot did not blunt China’s South China Sea strategy. Despite a few successful maneuvers, most of the strategies adopted by the U.S.-aligned Vietnam and the Philippines miscarried. During decades of both confrontation and cooperation with its neighbors, China has perfected a set of responses to territorial disputes. During the pivot, in the face of perceived provocations and operational incompetence, China proceeded and accelerated its successfully strategy and seized multiple opportunities to advance its claims. China has effectively established control of the Scarborough Shoal while creating over 3,200 acres of new land, surpassing all the other claimants’ territories combined. How did China prevail in the South China Sea over other regional powers, especially Vietnam and the Philippines? What types of games were being played out during the pivot and what are the lessons for future interactions? This paper explores how the South China Sea competitors act, react, and interact in strategic pursuit of their own self-interests. It investigates the nature of the multi-level nested games and the pivot’s impact on the South China Sea competition for territory.

嵌套博弈vs. 洲:中国的南海

摘要: 迄今为止,美国转向亚洲的战略并没有给其盟友和合作伙伴带来希望的结果,因为这个战略并没有遏止北京对南中国海的领土诉求。相反,美国盟友菲律宾和越南采取的战略只有少数成功,大部分都失败了。在过去几十年与邻国的对抗与合作中,中国针对领土争端完善了一系列对策。面对他国的挑衅和运作能力不足时,中国抓住了很多机会来推进自身的诉求。中国已经实际上控制了黄岩岛,并且(人为的)填出了超过3200英亩新土地,超过了其他所有国家在南海争议领土面积的总和。在与其他区域大国,尤其是越南和菲律宾的较量中,中国是如何取胜的?中国在美国采取转向亚洲的战略时,是怎样应对的?这些策略对将来与中国互动时中有哪些经验教训?本文探讨了南海这些相互竞争的国家在追求自身的利益时,是如何行动、如何反应和以及如何互动的。本文深入研究了美国转向亚洲战略的本质,以及该战略对南海各国产生的影响。

Journal, Book or Conference Title

East Asia Security Symposium and Conference 东亚安全座谈谈论会

Publication Details

Note on Contributor: Dr. Chunjuan Nancy Wei teaches in the M.A. East Asian & Pacific Rim Studies and the B.A. International Political Economy & Diplomacy programs at the University of Bridgeport in Connecticut, USA. She is a recipient of the Fulbright Fellowship, the Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation Research Grant, and Sigma Iota Rho Outstanding Faculty Advisor Award. Dr. Wei has published on the South China Sea disputes, U.S.-China relations, East Asian political economy, and cross-Taiwan Strait politics in book chapters and journals as the Harvard Asia Quarterly, Yale Journal of International Affairs, the Southeast Review of Asian Studies, the Eurasia Review, and The Diplomat.

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This document has been peer reviewed.