R. P. Byron

Date of this Version

August 1993

Document Type

Discussion Paper

Publication Details

Raymond P. Byron (1993) A Re-Estimation of Australia's Quarterly National Accounts and Balance of Payments Tables

School of Business Discussion Paper ; No. 44, Aug. 1993

© Copyright Raymond P. Byron and the School of Business, Bond University



The purpose of this note is to re-estimate various collections of data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The note has been spurred by an exchange between Dr Colin Hargreaves and Mr Ian Castles, the Australian Statistician, in recent issues of the Australian Financial Review. Pretty well all statistics collected by government statistical offices are subject to measurement error - these errors are reduced by successive revisions as better information becomes available until the estimates stabilise. However, some series are inherently less reliable than others and remain so, even after the stabilised estimate is published. If it is assumed that the accuracy of these final estimates is proportional to the variance of the difference between the initial and final estimates of the same figures and some additional information is available then an adjustment method can be worked out which assigns the greatest adjustment to the least reliable statistics and produces the best possible estimate in a quadratic loss sense.