Title

Use of GRADE for assessment of evidence about prognosis: Rating confidence in estimates of event rates in broad categories of patients

Date of this Version

3-16-2015

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Details

Citation only

Iorio, A., Spencer, F. A., Falavigna, M., Alba, C., Lang, E., Burnand, B., McGinn, T., Hayden, J., Williams, K., Shea, B., Wolff, R., Kujpers, T., Perel, P., Vandvik, P., Glasziou, P., Schunemann, H., Guyatt, G. (2015). Use of GRADE for assessment of evidence about prognosis: Rating confidence in estimates of event rates in broad categories of patients. BMJ (Online), 350.

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© Copyright, British Medical Journal Publishing Group, 2015

2015 HERDC Submission

ISSN

0959-8146

Abstract

The term prognosis refers to the likelihood of future health outcomes in people with a given disease or health condition or with particular characteristics such as age, sex, or genetic profile. Patients and healthcare providers may be interested in prognosis for several reasons, so prognostic studies may have a variety of purposes,1–4 including establishing typical prognosis in a broad population, establishing the effect of patients’ characteristics on prognosis, and developing a prognostic model (often referred to as a clinical prediction rule) (Table 1). Considerations in determining the trustworthiness of estimates of prognosis arising from these types of studies differ. This article covers studies answering questions about the prognosis of a typical patient from a broadly defined population; we will consider prognostic studies assessing risk factors and clinical prediction guides in subsequent papers.

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This document has been peer reviewed.