Partial moment volatility indices

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Journal Article

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Liu, Z. F., & O'Neill, M. J. (2016). Partial moment volatility indices. Accounting & Finance, 1-21.

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© 2016 AFAANZ


0810-5391 print, 1467-629X online


Forward-looking partial moment volatility indices are developed using state-pricing, called the bear index (BEX) and bull index (BUX). Using S&P 500 index (SPX) option prices, we find that BEX and BUX provide superior forecasts for the lower and upper partial moments of future market realised volatility, respectively. We examine the relation between SPX returns and changes in BEX and BUX at the daily level. Results are consistent with the volatility feedback hypothesis. Further, we show that BEX may be more suitable as the ‘investor fear gauge’ than VIX.

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