Title

Modelling the glitter in gold

Date of this Version

1-1-2009

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Details

Citation only

Kumar, K., Rajaguru, G. & Shrivastava, S. (2009). Modelling the glitter gold. Advances and Applications in Satistics, 13(2), 225-239.

Access the Journal

2009 HERDC submission. FoR code: 0104

© CopyrightPushpa Publishing House, 2009

Abstract

Academics have found it particularly challenging to develop parsimonious models that can accurately model and forecast gold price. One of the reasons could be the complex nature of gold market fundamentals. Arguing that the key to forecasting gold prices lies in analyzing the factors that generate investment demand (as opposed to gold supply and fabrication demand), we empirically validate a model that factors in consumer sentiments, interest rates, returns on stock market, and oil prices. Our findings indicate that although gold price has significant correlation with all these four variables, interest rate and consumer sentiments are only significant predictors of the gold price.

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This document has been peer reviewed.