A working definition of ‘overconfidence’ is ‘an artificially inflated estimate or prediction of a past event or future outcome’. Many psychological and sociological studies have been conducted on this topic, and it is now a widely accepted phenomenon. The trait appears most predominantly when difficult questions are posed, and least when questions are simplest.
"Overconfidence — its theory and implications in dispute resolution,"
ADR Bulletin: Vol. 10
, Article 4.
Available at: http://epublications.bond.edu.au/adr/vol10/iss4/4